On Apr 13, 4:55 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I was tickled by the words of Cleveland Abbe written some 107 years
back probably after a joint initiative between Britain and The USA, to
denounce any foolish idea that there might be a more practical method
for determining weather trends.

I have heard that a Mr George Airy made a search to see if indeed
there could be a relationship with the phases of the moon and the
weather. His enquiry turned up nothing useful but then apparently it
wasn't designed to.

Pushing a car jack under a vehicle will not raise the vehicle.
Operating the levers on the tool correctly will not do it either. A
modicum of skill in its use is required.

When Archimedes said "Give me a place to stand and a lever long enough
and I will move the world" he meant he knew how to use a lever. Merely
waving it around like a conjurer would not accomplish much.

"There·is more bald-faced faking done in this business than in any
other."So spake the Weather Man. He was just beginning to puzzle
himself over the incipient hurricane in the Lesser Antilles last week
and to wonder whether it would reach New York.

The Weather Man, with all the science of meteorology at his command,
with all the experience of the thirty years history of the Weather
Bureaux ready for his reference, couldn't tell just what this storm
would do during the next forty·eight hours of its career. Hence he
seemed a little exasperated that weather "prophets" with no science to
hold them up, with no elaborate records to guide them should presume
to foretell months in advance just what the snow, the wind and the
rain should do.

"Do you suppose that if these fellows really knew anything about
weather, that the bureau would allow them to work independently of it
for a day?"

History is littered with cases of little men with good ideas being
trampled on by people with money and power. Look for example at the
work of George Airey. He was instrumental in squashing the work of the
first man to track Neptune.

Other cases: Harrison and the chronometer, Whittle and the jet engine,
Stephenson and the Bell Rock light house, Laker and cheap air travel,
The list must be endless but I can only think of one or two off-hand.

All of them were pushed to the limit of their capabilities and their
resources. Even a relatively rich and well connected man such as
Admiral FitzRoy broke himself and destituted his family before cutting
his throat after trying to set up something a bit more useful than the
Board Of Trade was doing.

And how often do you hear of cases of prejudice in the news that
covers heinous crimes against humanity that government in all its
rituals strive to continue? From the Suffragettes to the war in Iraq?

As a matter of fact there is no scientific possibility of foretelling
what the weather will do more than two or three days beforehand. Upon
what these charlatans base their predictions, it is impossible to
state. They may base them upon the phases of the moon.

Perhaps this is not so far wrong, apparently, because the moon's
phases change every seven days and this is just about the period of
storm recurrence. There is no possible connection between the two; it
is simply a coincidence.

Speaking as one of those charlatans, I can only say that it did occur
to me to keep my knowledge to myself. It never occurred to me that if
I told anyone who would listen, that none on god's good earth would
listen.

That was an eye opener.

If I lost sight of my goals and thought I knew it all, I'd perhaps
stop what I am trying to do and disguise it somehow. Pretend that the
method is something else something similar but just shy off from
telling all. There is a chance I might make a few quid out of it.

There is no chance of profit for this prophet on this track, that is
for sure.

Some of the charlatans claim that they obtain insight into the future
weather conditions from the sun spots, which become frequent upon the
solar surface about every eleven years.

A pet hate of uk.sci.weather is someone who has a fractured success
claiming to use this method.

I dare say that the man actually know how to forecast sunspots. Which,
if that is true, begs the question: Why only him?

Is his computer bigger than the combined IT of all the meteorological
and astronomical agencies world wide?

As it happens when he forecasts massive storms for Britain they DO
occur but not necessarily IN or even near the UK. So evidently, he
does know something. Is he to be blamed for not progressing? Not
really, no-one asked him to spill all. Not in the correct way at
least. I believe he was offered 5 minutes at a meeting of
meteorologists at one time.

I'd have been wary myself and I am a lot less cautious than he seemed.

It is true that there is a relation between sunspots and magnetic
conditions of the earth but no relationship has as yet been
scientifically established between the weather and magnetic conditions
on this planet.

Wouldn't it be funny if there was a relationship between magnetism and
ozone? I wouldn't be surprised. Just like I wasn't surprised the
sheep's heads in charge of NASA had calibrated their satellites all
wrong and caused all the controversy about ozone holes in the first
place.

One hundred years ago it took power and authority to come up with the
goods on any ideas. These days even those in authority must wait, cap
in hand, so they can push the envelope. The chances of any schmuck off
the streets coming into the drizzling uninspires and hollowed hells of
accademia and shifting the earth, are negligible.

Even in the internet age where age, sex, race, wealth, authority and
all the gubbins of politics are as one. It just won't happen; not
while the world is run by chimpanzees and sock puppets.