Max date record before the end of April?
Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.
Torro has these date records for the end of April:
26 25.8C 78.4 Inverdruie (Highland) 1984
27 25.6C 78 New Malden (London) 1916
28 25.5C 77.9 Kinlochewe (Highland) 1984
29 25.8C 78.4 Creebridge (Dumfries and Galloway) 1993; 25.0/77
Margate and Herne Bay (both Kent) 1955
30 26.1*C 79* Camden Square (London)1952
25.0C 77 Kensington Palace and Regents Park (both London)
1952; Aberdovey (Gwynedd) 1990; Nantwich (Cheshire) and Glentress
(Borders) 1993
None are actually as high as the records for the next few days: April
1893 must have been a corker!
19 25.6 78 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
20 28.9 84 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
21 28.1 82.6 Ross-on-Wye (Heref)1893
Over 80F in April 1893!! Phew what a schorcher! It takes exceptional
synoptics and perfect local conditions to produce a date record and
some survive for centuries, despite a warming trend. However, given
exactly the same synoptics today, on those dates, a date record would
be more likely now than it was then. Local conditions would determine
whether a record was actually set. Also, in a warming trend, you would
expect to see more date records set per decade than in decades
previous - exactly what we have happening in the UK at the moment.
I like chasing possible plumes on the gfs over the summer. Spotting
them at T240+ has netted me over £1000 profit in backing record
monthly temperatures at the bookies over the last 3 years. (Oh no!
Echoes of Piers Corbyn there!) It's my only gambling weakness, honest!
Paul
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