On Apr 19, 10:24*am, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I've just had a look back at my records and using the monthly mean
temperature, Feb 2008 was actually warmer than Feb 2007 but by only 0.1C.
All the other months had a monthly mean temp colder than 12 months previous,
but many by only a small margin.

This did not apply to the mean max though with Feb, Nov & Aug recording mean
max temps higher than the previous year. In fact, looking at the sequence
the monthly mean max temps were remarkably similar, it was the mean mins
that were significantly lower than the previous 12 months, probably
represented by the more settled nature (and hence colder nights) of autumn
and winter 2007/8 when compared with 2006/7.

I think this CET sequence will end in June & July, unless of course we get a
summer as horrendous as last year's washout.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Yes, the likelihood would increase! However, in terms of temperature,
last summer was not dreadful (in terms of precipitation, dreariness,
lack of sunshine and downright depressing awfulness, oh goodness yes!
Especially for particular areas of the UK, like NE Scotland; the SW
didn't fare as badly as most other areas.). It wasn't that far off
being an average summer, if one talks strictly about temperatures
alone. In this warming trend, an average summer, as regards
temperatures, has been unusual in the last decade. That may be why I
look back and think of last summer as "cool and wet", when in fact it
was closer to "average and wet!" It my perception of summers over the
last 20 years, which leads me to think "cool". If the warming trend
continues and I see no reason why it shouldn't, the likelihood of this
summer and its constituent months continuing the trend would be low.

Col's interesting sequence could actually end before the summer. Last
May's CET of 11.98C, by Philip's continuing Manley series, has been
beaten 10 times in the 20 years since 1988. It wasn't beaten at all in
the 14 years before 1988. ttp://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

With a continuing UK warming trend, I'd put the odds at less than
evens (ie odds on) that Col's sequence will end in May. The chances of
it ending this April are, not surprisingly, very close to zero!

Paul