wrote in message
...
On Apr 25, 12:37 pm, Dawlish wrote:
Saturday looks like it could be an April peach of a spring day for
much of England, South Wales and the SE of Scotland (maybe even
further North as Aberdeen). The first 21C of the year ought to be
achieved somewhere. I still stick by my 22.3C in Hurn as being the
location of April's max UK temp and Saturday looks the likeliest day
for it to be achieved! Maybe somewhere in the SE will beat it!

... have just been looking at the figures for our part of the world
for Saturday (as we live a few miles up the road from Hurn). I make
the forecast partial (850-1000hPa) thickness ~1355m (from GFS/06Z
run), which suggests *unadjusted figure* of 18.5/19degC, and given
strong sunshine mid/late afternoon might imply 20 is possible if *all*
other conditions are right. Using the crude '850T+10' rule gives
18/19degC. However, the Channel close-by is not much more than
9.5/10degC, and the wind is forecast to be from that direction all day
- well mixed environment too.

The problem is how the warming of the Bournemouth/Christchurch
conurbation is going to play - it often leads to a late maximum (or
rather later than might be expected from a 'standard' heating curve),
and there might be a bit of help as well in the final Tx from strong
surface heating from that direction. Taking all these factors
together, I wouldn't want to promise much more than 19degC for Hurn.
If we get 22.3, then I'll start suspecting the location of the screen,
the integrity of the instrumentation or a passing FlyBe ;-)

I would tend to look to areas further downwind for the day maximum
tomorrow - perhaps north of London, Fens, East Midlands, Lincs, etc.,
and also perhaps north Kent coast?

Martin.
--

More likely to be a passing Ryanair or Thomson, we don't really get Flybe's
at Hurn!

Jim, Bournemouth.