On Apr 25, 7:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:
I'm surprised there aren't any weather warnings out for Sunday. The
latest Fax charts are suggeting a low will develop over England and
areas on the Southern and South-Eastern side of this could be subject
to some fairly intense convection, perhaps leading to thundery
activity, but also some heavy and persistent rain. There will still be
some warm and humid air to the SE of that low and the front that is
likely to spawn it. Keep you eyes on the weather warnings; tomorrow's
nice day (and today's done here) could well be paid for in spades in
the South.

Further afield; the Atlantic looks stalled. The gfs has a low sitting
over us for a week, funnelling warm air Northwards through Eastern
Europe and into Scandinavia and even into the Russian Arctic. After
that, pressure is forecast to rise over Western Russia. Possible May
Easterlies for the UK? Paul Simons writes about exactly that in The
Tombs today and talked about the NW of Scotland sometimes having the
best of the UK weather at this time of year, if the Atlantic does
completely stall, allowing Easterlies to develop.

Paul

The Met Office still don't think the rain will be heavy enough for any
kind of advisory/warning tomorrow. The FAX charts still show the
development of that wave depression and I still think there could be
some atmospheric fireworks in some areas and some very heavy rain with
that set-up. The MO has the low centred slightly further North than
yesterday, bringing some central areas of England more into the firing
line.

The 06z gfs shows quite a change from last night's charts from T180
(next Saturday) onwards and now brings us into that warm air that is
forecast to extend right into the Arctic, North of Western Russia and
Scandinavia. Svarlbad as warm as some parts of the UK in early May?
We'll see! It does this by locating the low slightly more West of last
night's location, now allowing the UK to bathe in Southerlies, which
encourage another plume of warm air from North Africa.

Paul