"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

The Met Office still don't think the rain will be heavy enough for any
kind of advisory/warning tomorrow. The FAX charts still show the
development of that wave depression and I still think there could be
some atmospheric fireworks in some areas and some very heavy rain with
that set-up.

Some heavy rain is likely but the detail has varied a bit from run to run
and hence the risk for any particular area is probably deemed less than the
required 40%
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html
To a certain extent this is reflected in the 1000Z issue Long TAFs which
indicate moderate rain with no mention of heavy as yet for any particular
airfield (30% risk threshold).

GFS currently has the highest 48 hour totals over parts of northern England,
more especially over the Pennines http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs48sum.gif

Visible imagery has some deeper looking tops due west of Biscay
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_VIS.html

Jon.