On Apr 26, 12:56*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

The Met Office still don't think the rain will be heavy enough for any
kind of advisory/warning tomorrow. The FAX charts still show the

development of that wave depression and I still think there could be

some atmospheric fireworks in some areas and some very heavy rain with
that set-up.

Some heavy rain is likely but the detail has varied a bit from run to run
and hence the risk for any particular area is probably deemed less than the
required 40%http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html
To a certain extent this is reflected in the 1000Z issue Long TAFs which
indicate moderate rain with no mention of heavy as yet for any particular
airfield (30% risk threshold).

GFS currently has the highest 48 hour totals over parts of northern England,
more especially over the Pennineshttp://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs48sum.gif

Visible imagery has some deeper looking tops due west of Biscayhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_VIS.html

Jon.

Finally got a weather warning! I've been convinced for a day that this
wave depression would produce some very heavy rain, but pinpointing it
was beyond me! It has ended up further North than it looked like it
would get, but there has been some excellent convection in
instability, in advance of the front, creating storms for some. Then,
as the wave tracked NE, another area of deep convection has brought
thunderstorms and heavy rain to the North Midlands and Yorkshire. The
present weather radar shows that heavy rain now in in the NE of
England/ SE of Scotland and there's another nice circulation producing
some heavy rain over Wales too. That could drag some storms over the
SW later - perhaps they are just beginning to show in the SW
approaches.

An interesting night to come for some! Many of us, however, may be
left thinking what all the fuss has been about!

Paul