"Will" wrote in message
...
Snip
12Z GFS suggests circa 30mm rain at Exeter on Sunday, some of it thundery.

In comparison the 12Z EC EPS Meteogram looks to be somewhere around 20-25mm
on average (upper boundaries much higher though).


On Tuesday GFS brings in thundery showers to the SW which seems about
right.

...which then extend/develop across much of the UK on Wednesday and Thursday
:-
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2.gif
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack4.gif


It must be a nightmare for the *real* human forecasters ATM as it will be
crucial where the front pivots. If it actually stops or even starts to
push back
west or wave then yes indeed some places are going to get 60mm or even
more.

Things now appear more progressive (at least for central and southern areas)
but the T+72 still hints at the potential for wave development in the south
:- http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2.gif


ATM I'm facing the prospect of a southeasterly gale and heavy driving
thundery
rain for most of the day tomorrow, possibly giving 50mm +, and we have
guests
arriving too !

Sounds like typical Haytor barbecue weather :-)

Jon.