On May 5, 10:00*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
5th to 12th May 12:18
This spell is the only one I have covered that is near it and it has a
certain resonance:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...se_frm/thread/...
Spells at twelve and 6 o'clock tend to produce low overcast even misty
weather in Britain. Of course with a Cat 4 running elsewhere things
are going to be different for a while, *perhaps we could knock 3 hours
off it?
09:18. Something unstable and given to thunder. And in the USA more
tornadic stuff. Looks like a continuum from the folowing, all the more
so ifthe storm moderates and we have a spell more akin to 10:18 or
whatever:
When a flaccid set up pertains in the North Atlantic and the Lows
don't behave the way that they are supposed to, expect:
"The population of Chaiten in Chile has been evacuated after a volcano
began to erupt, covering the town in ash.
The volcano spewed ash and caused tremors in the region on Friday,
forcing water supplies to be cut off, the authorities said.
By Sunday the town, about 1,300km from Santiago, the capital, was
covered in ash.
It is the volcano's first eruption in at least 2,000 years, according
to Sernageomin, a government mining and geology agency, and caused the
Patagonian town of nearly 4,500 people to be emptied.
Many evacuees travelled by boat to Chiloe Island to the north and
Puerto Montt on the mainland."
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...6A-BFB8-2765B0....
An interesting Low in the North Atlantic this. It wouldn't surprise me
if it continued all through the next spell too.
This morning a Cat 4 tropical storm appeared over Japan. No warnings
from any agency I saw.
Anyway the sun's coming out again after some drizzle yesterday. That
Low after being stationary over the other side of the Mid Atlantic
Ridge for a week moved quickly at the end of the last spell to Britain
and with this spell has returned to the west it is now 35 degrees west
and apparently filling.
Which could mean another eruption and then it will probably move
quickly west again. Wednesday looks favourite:http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...e/Fax/,.gif,br...
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.t...frm/thread/67a...
Though why it should moderate in 60 minute intervals is beyond me. Not
that I am stating it as an axiom. Just a rule of thumb until brighter
light is shone on the subject.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
There will be no brighter light as you are the brightest. "could" mean
another eruption? Again, after one eruption of a volcano, so long
dormant, other eruptions are quite likely. Again pure guesswork, on
your part, based upon the increased statistical chance of one eruption
following another.
There are a whole host of ongoing volcanic eruptions, any of which
could be suggested as a result of some other activity. Why latch onto
this one that was completely unpredictable by everyone, including you.
could it be because it is in the news? This is not a major volcanic
eruption, so why even mention it? If another, long-dormant, volcano
erupts, that will take your attention too, I'm sure. Just take a look
at this site and then you'll be able to pick any of the volcanos,
pretend you know something about it and link it to your theories.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763388.html
Here's a forecast for you about May's weather, based upon your own
language:
After a warm first 4 days, it would not be unusual if the May CET
ended up above average. May is quite capable of producing a CET 2.5C
above average and after the warmth of the first 4 days, it would not
be unlikely if that happened.
If I was right, it would mean nothing in terms of forecasting may's
weather. If you were right, it would mean nothing in terms of
forecasting an earthquake.
Pick a volcano (OK, we've got this one with a Weatherlawyer; "could
erupt again", which is a likelihood possessed by every single active
volcano in the world and all those that have erupted in recorded
history, plus many more) and tell us when it will erupt. Pick an
earthquake site and tell us when it will fracture. Then do it
again........and again.......and muliply that by 20 and I'll allow you
1/3 failures. Then do it again another 80 times and try to approach
80% accuracy. Then I'll begin call Michael "sir" and support your
ideas.
Or, you could start by telling us what your theories have accurately
predicted, including all those, like the 24th April, that you didn't.
That one poor forecast needs two correct to cancel it out and bring
you to 66%. Where are they? And where are all the other correct
forecasts that back up your theory? Without an accuracy base,
forecasts are simply forecasts. They can only be judged by outcome.
So far today, you have vaguely predicted a 7.5 mag earthquake,
somewhere and said that the volcano Chaiten could erupt again, using
obscure reasoning and timings of events, only understood by yourself.
I won't forget and I will return to them at the end of the week.