On 7 May, 21:01, Dawlish wrote:
On May 7, 6:45 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 7, 3:10 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 7, 3:01 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 7, 8:46 am, Dawkish wrote:
Back on topic.
Quite right, let us put the past behind us and you can go and boil
your head while I think about editing my posts to make you look even
more bumptious than you are.
low gramur snipped.
Blast!
I was going to reply regardless but I have forgotten what you drooled
and can't be asked to look.
The 7.5 Earthquake that you proposed could happen in the next 2-3
days..... hasn't. Your prediction from 24th April was wrong. To even
achieve a continuing 50% accuracy will now require you to get the next
two predictions correct. I await them with interest.
But in Weather Law a Cat 4 hurricane can be regarded as a stand-in for
an earthquake of from 7.5 M to 7.8 or 9ish.
(Bearing in mind that not only is perturbation considered but the time
at high oscillation is taken into account. If the same was true for
hurricanes, the time interval would put it well into the teens.)
Other outcomes also to be considered are volcanic eruptions with a
large output of matter. Large cells of F 3 and 4 tornadoes covering
many counties even a number of states. Above cloud lightning and
lesser storms in higher latitudes.
Search and see (if you can find someone to show you how) the one thing
all the above have in common is that they occur at a region where the
surface pressure is near 1010 millibars. Usually between two or more
fairly flaccid weather systems.
Generally an hurricane force in the temperate climes is the equivalent
of a Cat 3 or 4 cyclone.
I will not be dictated to by you in the use of English.
Now look at this, you recalcitrant scion of a ne'er do well:
5.3 M. 2008/05/06. 23:28 -7.9 123.2 Banda Sea
5.3 M. 2008/05/06. 12:42 -20.4 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.1 M. 2008/05/06. 10:06 -20.3 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.3 M. 2008/05/05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran
If you take the matched pair out of this equation you get a lapse of
over 24 hours for the next pair:
06. 23:28 -7.9 123.2 Banda Sea
05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran
And a storm in the west (Asian) Pacific:http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif
No hurricane yet (it is classed as a gale on the Beaufort Scale) it
will grow more powerful or the earthquake I said would arrive some
days ago is at last going to avail itself for our edification.
One more axiom for Clueless:
When the classical methods of weather-forecasting show error or
uncertainty and there is something of the same ilk with my efforts
too, then the likelihood (the North Atlantic having a positive NAO
(according to my way of classifying said anomaly (not that I think it
is anomalous, in the true meaning of the word))) is that an earthquake
of Mag 7 or larger is due.
This one is SOOOO due....
You have much to learn and I have much to teach, so go and wipe your
bottom, clean it and report back so I can give your arse another
kicking. Sodue.
Show me the evidence of forecast success.......or go away. Mind you,
your abuse is funny! *))
Without that evidence. You are a charlatan; no more.
An earthquake of Mag 7, or larger, as has already been explained to
you, by two of us, will occur, on average, every few weeks. You just
completely failed to predict the last one. You'll predict this one,
but so will I.
There will be a Mag 7 earthquake, or larger, somewhere in the world in
the next month. 4/6 your odds. Any takers?
This spell will continue until that large earthquake occurs, unless
there is more than one due -in which case (against the odds) they will
occur within a few days of each other.
Care to give me odds on that? Or if you want to chance ytour pocket
money for the month put a fiver on it, sonny.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
No: the probability is that a large magnitude (7.0, 7.5, you seem very
confused as to what constitutes "large") earthquake will occur over
the next month (odds on) and the enormous likelihood is that the
earthquake will have nothing whatsoever to do with the position of any
of your meteorological features.
Did you look at those gfs pressure maps of Asia, that I referred you
to, including the "commie conspiracy" countries that apparently
prevent them being released and stopped you finding any for so long?
Most of us have been looking at them for years. Hope they help you.
PS As Harold says, nothing has "gone up in the last few
years"........you just weren't aware of the stats. We can't help that,
but some of us really are here to help when you need it.
PPS Any chance of those success statistics? Not much to ask.
Its not just the pressure maps in Asia he needs to look at.
I suggest he takes a look at the pressure maps for the entire planet,
especially between the tropics and then he will see just how much of
it has surface pressure close to 1010mb for many months.
Is it really suprising that volcanoes, earthquakes and other
disturbances are more common in those areas, when an average pressure
of 1010mb is probably the most common around the globe?
Of course, we must not forget the power of the moon's gravitational
pull which (although it may not have as much effect on land as it does
over the water) is one day going to coincide with a geological
weakness and......
.....well I dare not allow myself to imagine what may come next.