On May 10, 8:56*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 10, 12:23 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php
And Rammasun is at hurricane force. It is slated to become a cat. 2.
Coincidence?
A 6.7 and smack on time too. *2008/05/09. 21:51. Guam region.
http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif
120 knots. A Cat 4 again.
This gives us an opportunity to play with a little algebra vis a vis
weather patterns. A Lunar Phase near 12 or 6 o'clock should produce a
low overcast relatively cool spell. We have enjoyed an unusually fine
spell instead.
If you accord the times of the phases arbitrary values of 1 through 6
a la Weatherlawyer's Precepts, you derive a value of 5 o'clock for
this spell.
It has been displaced by 5 hours. Or if you advance the clock, 1 hour.
I am presuming the cause to be inertia, therefore I am going to go
with the larger number where I imagine the spell being retarded not
advanced. Ergo:
Spell X = 5
Time X = 6 = 00
Force X = Cat 4
Now we need a base line for the weather in that neck of the woods in
May. This is about the only time that statistics prove useful in
climatology:
DAMN!
Nothing is ever easy is it:
"The Philippines has two very different climate zones.
*In the coastal and lowland areas there's a typically tropical marine
climate: hot and humid throughout most of the year. However, most of
the year constant sea breezes temper the climate somewhat except
during the dry summer months from March to the end of May.
The two main seasons are wet and dry; the dry season from mid-November
to mid-May
... from November to the end of February enjoying cool, ocean breezes
with March to May with being the hottest, up to 38C" Did you write
this Dawlish?
"..and the wet season from June to October being hot and humid.
Every year during the rainy season nearly 20 typhoons, known as
"bagyos" blow across the islands usually lasting 3 or 4 days. Steamy,
sunny days during the wet season are common after the tropical
downpours of heavy rain during the nights and early mornings."http://www.world66.com/asia/southeastasia/philippines/climate
Let us presume calm humid overcast is the norm for phases there as
here, where the time of the phase is 12 or 6 o'clock.
So a marked deterioration in the weather of *from calm to 125 knots in
the West Pacific is worth a marked change from cool overcast to
anticyclonic in Britain.
And it can be given a value. A Cat 4 = an M 8 to M 9.
And an anticyclone where it should be a col is thus worth C4 or M 8.5.
Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html
Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e...
Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
A prediction of a 7.5 Earthquake is now justified by you, by the
ocurrence of a 6.7 earthquake, which is over 8x weaker?? That's
"bloody good". Nah. That's guessing the probabilities completely
wrong. You went for far too big an eathquake. As has been pointed out
to you, on average, there are between 15 and 20 Earthquakes of 7.0
per year. 7.5 would probably be around 5. You can't cope with odds of
over 70/1 against.
An earthquake of 6 occurs around 150 times a year, 1 every 2 to 3
days on average. Just think how "bloody good" you could have been if
you'd just guessed your number a little differently?
Waiting for the "major eruption" over the next 2 days to increase your
success stats to 33% (and also for you to define what you mean by a
"major" eruption, though I know it benefits you a great deal to have
such obfuscation in your success criteria, even though the obfuscation
is painfully obvious.
No reasonable success percentage in predictions; no use.