oh here comes the "No forecast" soon....

your forecast was crap paul, admit it; based on 1 run, 1 model at t+240

you never learn.


Dawlish wrote:
On May 16, 11:34 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On May 16, 12:30 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night
frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and
gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas
through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/
Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most
prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear
skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At
least it looks like it will dry out.
The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like
probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with
Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it
is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take,
though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the
Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce
80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is
well and truly stalled and has been since April.
What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the
cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny
and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the
wind.
Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants
in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite
beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year!
Paul
------------------
Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday
at
somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-)
Dave
Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in
summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical
plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-)
Will
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I think the rise in pressure will leave us in much drier conditions
Dave(s) and give many areas some pleasant sunshine, but I can't be
sure that the plume will bring that real warmth. Possible, not
probable on that one. Analysis of the models, by different people,
amateurs and professionals alike, can produce different
interpretations. Just because there is a variation between Darren's
interpretion and mine makes neither of us wrong. It's "today's model
analysis", in this instance and not an actual forecast. There's a big
difference. Forecasts should only be judged at outcome and then judged
by clear parameters set at the start - as W is finding out on another
thread. Analysis implies a measure of uncertainty. I wouldn't dream of
looking at Darren's success percentage, as what he produces is an
analysis of the current models, with suggestions as to what might
happen and not a forecast. It is one of the best around for me and it
is incredibly useful every morning that I read it!

I hope we get the plume next weekend, Dave, but a hope is what it is!
The 06z makes it a little less likely, but doesn't remove the
possibility completely. where the North African warmth reaches
depends, very much, on the position of the low in the Atlantic and
it's most likely position, on 7/8/9 days time, will alter over the
next few days as the models change, maybe quite considerably!

Paul
---------------
Don't worry - round there it will be great whatever the weather! Well,
barring raging Sw'lies ;-)
Dave- Hide quoted text -

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It's looking a slower warm-up than was on the cards yesterday, but
there's still a chance of a warm end to May and thus the chance of a
warm start to June.

Cool though! UK maxes struggling to get near 20C, compared to the date
record a week ago and many areas well below that. Bridlington, of all
places, warmest in the UK at 0800 this morning! Such a turn-around
from last weekend. CET down to 14.6C, +4.1C (http://www.climate-
uk.com/) and it will fall further over the coming week. By the end of
this week, UK maxes will probably be above 21C again, but many areas
will see some nice sunshine, as high pressure rises, albeit slowly.
Still some cloud around, during the week, for many, but if you can get
out of the cool wind, it won't feel as bad as it does, certainly in
Devon, today, as it will be much drier. After that, the gfs has
postponed the plume, by a few days, until 10 days hence. I'm still not
confident of those late May high temps, but, presently, there's more
of a possibility of that, than the end of May being coold and damp.
Despite the current cool UK weather, May looks as though it will end
up with a CET significantly above average and that it will break the
13 month sequence of the previous year's corresponding month being
warmer than the current year's.

Paul