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Old August 8th 04, 09:33 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Bernard Burton Bernard Burton is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: May 2004
Posts: 5,382
Default 1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts

Ian, Wokingham temps currently (2128Z), Dry 24.6, DP 17.6, RH 65 %.
There is an interesting looking thunderstorm working its way across the
Channel from Cherbourg at the moment.


--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html







"Ian Waddell" wrote in message
...
Will,

I was going to say the same thing, but just looking at the BBC Radar. All
the rain seems to be "stopping" halfway across the UK, which is strange
given the forecasts.

Is this due to the High not budging as easily as first thought or some

other
reason?

I'm guessing that this throws the forecast for the rest of the week a

little
awry.

Wokingham still muggy - 28C indoors, very mild but with a slight breeze
outdoors (no temp reading).

Cheers,

Ian
"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at

wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with

hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the

west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will

see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to

kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm

trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather

subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air

near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low

confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "


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