As ever, thoughtful thoughts Will.
What has gone wrong? What factors hasn't materialised, what slight change
happened, what was missed, what trigger was thought to be there but wasn't,
why wern't these things added to the mix? I suppose if we know that it
wouldn't have gone wrong?!
"Will" wrote in message
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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at
wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with
hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.
I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm
trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather
subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air
near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.
Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low
confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.
Will.
--
" A cup is most useful when empty "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
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