Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
Issued 0531z, 26th May 2008

**NOTE**
This will be the last analysis for a while as I'm going on holiday to
Vancouver and Seattle for the next week and a half. Normal service will be
resumed when I return.

The models show a generally settled and warm weekend with a ridge over the
UK. Beyond that there are signs of less settled weather moving up from the
south as high pressure reasserts itself to the north.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Strong NE'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the north. There's little
change tomorrow, but by Wednesday ENE'lies affect the UK as the high drifts
eastwards. On Thursday SE'lies and SSE'lies cover the UK, with a low over
Ireland.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a split jet over the mid-Atlantic and a weak
southerly flow over the UK. At the 500hPa level a trough extends across the
UK, whereas MetO has an upper col. ECM brings an upper ridge over England
and Wales, while GEM shows upper southerlies with a trough to the west.
At the surface GFS brings light winds and a ridge over the UK. MetO has a
ridge over Scotland and northerlies elsewhere, while ECM's ridge is stronger
and slightly further south, with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all
seeing light winds. A trough covers Wales with GEM, leading to SE'lies for
much of the UK.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland with
NE'lies elsewhere. A ridge covers the whole of the UK on day 7, bringing
light winds.
GFS brings NW'lies on day 6 as a ridge moves in from the west. Pressure
builds to the north on day 7, leading to NNE'lies and ENE'lies over the UK.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM a col covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with
easterlies elsewhere. There's little change on day 9 but by day 10 the col
covers most of the UK, with light winds for all.
GFS shows a weak ridge over the UK on day 8 and on day 9 a col covers the UK
as low pressure fills to the west. By day 10 high pressure lies to the north
and ENE'lies cover the UK.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles continue to show a warm spell aloft for the next week, with a
fair bit of wind.