In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
One heavy shower early this morning - but that was it. Not enough to fill
the water butt! Whatever is said about the difficulty of forecasting that
was not put across in the current bout of forecasts which were as definite
as you can get for heavy blanket rainfall in most of England, raining all
day today in the S.E. No doubt expressed! Well only by Will Hand!

Dave

The difficulty in getting the detail right and expected large variations in
weather locally (particularly rainfall amounts) has been emphasised for a
number of days and continues to be. If this hasn't been conveyed in the
broadcasts (I don't watch them) then this is disappointing. In saying that I
was surprised at the lack of more organised rain across southern areas
yesterday, at least during daylight hours.

I haven't seen many TV forecasts over the past couple of days but those
I have seen have been of the "doom and gloom with wall to wall
torrential rain" variety. In this sort of situation it's never like
that. Some places get very high totals while others get little or none
and it's almost impossible to forecast which areas will be affected. The
forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days haven't mentioned this
variability. They have given the impression that pretty well everywhere
would get 25-50 mm or more. Here in Chalfont St Giles we have had 3.2 mm
out of this whole event so far.

When the severe weather warnings give a 40 percent probability of
disruption resulting from heavy rain it is this that tends to be
highlighted on the TV forecasts. What is never pointed out is that there
is a 60 percent chance that it won't happen i.e. the balance of
probabilities is that it won't happen even though there is a possibility
that it will. In reality, in the present situation, some areas, probably
fairly localised, will experience disruption and flooding while most
places will not. It's not easy to find the words to get the right
message across. The TV forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days
have failed to find the right words.

The weather presenter on Sky News this afternoon went a bit over the top
saying that the low to the west of the British Isles was giving us a
taste of autumn and winter. If we get these temperatures in winter then
we really do have a warming problem :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England