"Chris Smith" wrote in message
...
Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jun 2, 2:58 pm, Chris Smith wrote:
Weather warnings for much of the Eastern half of the UK now for
tonight's developments.

Not much discussion on here about it though. I'd have thought there
would be much banter from experts and amateurs alike about likely spots
for the highest rainfall totals, chances of and distribution of storms,
and so on.

Instead... silence. Calm before the storm?

Chris

It's not that, but that no-one really has any idea quite what
is going on, including me. There have been widespread outbreaks of
thunderstorms over Belgium and northern France but they have rather
petered out on moving NW'wards. The rain areas that are forecast by
GFS look more organised than just outbreaks and their precise location
will depend on how much the Low over the near continent deepens as it
moves NW and also its precise track. There seems to be no frontal
activity but there is a lot of very warm and humid air over The
Netherlands and Belgium that could do the business with a bit of
dynamic uplift. This is a very difficult one.
Will that do? :-)

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.


Excellent! Of course, if no-one really has any idea quite what is going
on, you'd think that would fuel speculation and theories.

Anyway - at just on 17:30, that looks suspiciously like a developing MCS
crossing the Southern North sea. As someone else mentioned, Bill and Katie
better not have put their wellies away just yet...

Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

It is an MCS and that looks like it will clip East Anglia. How it will
affect the upper air with mass upper divergence is another matter?
Of interest to the SW is a developing storm cluster over NW France which
could give some storms in the SW overnight. Also what goes on over France
this evening could affect tomorrows forecast.
A lot of uncertainties, but watch out for surprises, I think the chance of
this one going precisely to plan is low!

Will
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