On Jun 23, 3:07*pm, Malcolm wrote:
In article , Martin Rowley
writes



"Col" wrote in message
...
http://www.weatheraction.com/

He could end up looking very silly (again).

It looks zonal for the foreseable future though with the
continental high pressure not too far from the south
I'd say Wimbledon & Glastonbury would be pretty
dry throughout!
--

... poor chap is living in a dream world .....
quote
2) The Guardian and the Times and any media which carries articles by
Paul Simmons are explicitly forbidden from quoting any aspect of any
WeatherAction forecast until further notice.

You would have thought that anyone with confidence in their forecasts
would want them quoted as widely as possible.

Does this mean that (a) he is not confident, (b) cannot take criticism,
or (c) both? Yet when Paul Simmons pointed out that his autumn
superstorm forecasts hadn't come to pass, The Times published a letter
from Corbyn, so he exercised his right of reply. I do, though, notice
that those forecasts are not included in the section on his webpage
headed "Forecast Accuracy".

Oh well, bearing in mind what happened at Glastonbury last year, I guess
the majority of people attending were always to take their wellies, so
they should be well prepared for the "exceptional deluges of torrential
rain" :-)

--
Malcolm- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

He's another weather-wonder, who never returns to discuss and analyse
his forecasts unless they prove correct. Not one poor forecast is even
mentioned on his forecast accuracy page, never mind analysed. The most
recent successful forecast that he quotes, on that page, is for March
2007!! This man has claimed 85% accuracy with his "gales forecasts" in
the past. That's 17 correct forecasts out of every 20. Corbyn forecast
2 sets of 100 mph gales for the Devon coast in December 2006 (even
made the local rag, "The Herald Express" - who promptly forgot the
fact that no such gales occurred, but it gave him the sensationalist
oxygen that allows his company to survive) . Neither gale happened, of
course. He also forecast the "super gale", when flooding did almost
occur in Lowestoft and in Holland, in November, but nothing like the
wind speeds he predicted actually occurred. that's 3 poor forecasts of
gales in the last 18 months.......

...........did anyone notice the 17 correct ones to maintain this
percentage accuracy??

I do wish he would publish his research, but he quotes "commercial
secrecy", or something. The reason he doesn't publish it is that it is
probably useless over a long period of time, when outcome accuracy is
monitored closely. He's been living off one, pretty inconclusive,
statistical review (Wheeler 2001) of his work, published 7 years ago.

If he wasn't a charlatan, he'd publish real verification figures,
based on measurable outcomes. I'm nearly a thousand quid up with
bookies, over the last few years, but that's because bookies/offerers
of odds on Betfair tend to know slightly less about the weather than I
do. That gives me an edge. Corbyn used the same reasoning, but no-one
knows anything about the bets of his that failed.

I'm entirely sick of his rantings against the Met Office and entirely
sick of him. He can't even spell Paul Simons' name properly on his
website. Paul Simmons doesn't write for "The Tombs", which means that
the real Paul Simons ought to be able to say exactly what he wants and
good luck to him. Anyone that pays for his forecasts needs sectioning.

Paul

PS I'll bet he's spitting nails his hands at the latest gfs output -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2642.png

Torrential thundery downpours.........unfortunately the festival is
the previous weekend.