"John Whitby" wrote in message
news:%EuSc.1766$7E3.536@newsfe5-
snip

Obs, radar, satpics and 1200Z Camborne still suggest very little *frontal*
about the weather effecting the SW. Looks as if the rain will be patchy
...basically an area of showers with some thunderstorms. As Jon suggests
though things may change. Still likely to give plenty of rain to some
places
which have already had more than enough. Mainly shower cloud on this
afternoons satpic .....

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/pro...roject.ch2.jpg
Cheers
John

There's a bit more organisation to the precipitation in the far south now
but admittedly it's still largely a showery/convective mass. The 18Z
analysis on the MetO Aviation (subscription pages) put the occlusion roughly
Rosslare through Plymouth with a narrow warm sector over NW France. The 12Z
(unmodified mesoscale) carries a more organised band of rain north (perhaps
overdone in terms of coherence) to lie roughly where the occlusion is placed
on the 12Z T+24 http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack0.gif .

I'd hazard a guess it's all roughly tied in with the 16 theta-w plume that
can be seen here :-
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_...W_12_panel.gif
the occlusion extending back further west through the 14 theta-w over
Ireland.

Jon.


Jon.