There's a bit more organisation to the precipitation in the far south now
but admittedly it's still largely a showery/convective mass. The 18Z
analysis on the MetO Aviation (subscription pages) put the occlusion roughly
Rosslare through Plymouth with a narrow warm sector over NW France. The 12Z
(unmodified mesoscale) carries a more organised band of rain north (perhaps
overdone in terms of coherence) to lie roughly where the occlusion is placed
on the 12Z T+24 http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack0.gif .

I'd hazard a guess it's all roughly tied in with the 16 theta-w plume that
can be seen here :-
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_...W_12_panel.gif
the occlusion extending back further west through the 14 theta-w over
Ireland.

Jon.

I'm not clear about what's exactly going on.
The WV is complex-
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...11800BW1_g.jpg
with a striking dry intrusion like feature along the jet streak into the showers off the SW coast.
Is there a baroclinic zone in the English channel with a notional triple point off the SW coast?Is
the trough / shower feature to Sw nr Biscay expected to interact with this and set off a sort of
'Instant Occlusion ' which then moves NE?
If the jet overruns the convection at the triple point is this likely to provide enough shear for
tornado formation on the south coast?
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/pro...roject.ch2.jpg
shows the anvils 'pluming out' in the winds aloft.
Anybody got a clear analysis?
--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)