On Jul 16, 11:03*pm, "Dave R." wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Dave! You can't be right before a forecast has actually come to
outcome. Your summer forecast has not yet come true and neither has
the MetOs.

Paul

What ARE you on about P. You are wrong. *my miserable rants and the Mets
HAVE come true, so far, thats enough to be going on with ain't it? maybe not
for you in the SWest with your deep excesses of mediterranean style sun
salad you seem to have got so far but certainly here in the SE its followed
the average very well indeed, which is and has been, as if you need
reminding, cool, brief days of 26C's but only from about 13 00 - 16.00 then
sharp drop offs, breezy, quite cloudy for the most part and as a result
overally depressing. And I am telling you this. Of course we obviously have
differing opinions of "the feel" to the weather, I accept that of you.

As regards next week I'm saying Monday 28 July 2008 to Sunday 10 August 2008
is forecast for the so called improvent wereas originally it was Monday 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 which is now cool and unsettled according
to Darren Bett despite the ECM GFS runs which only list a brief weakish
settled spell. Look you can see for yourself I put the link up enough timeshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtmland then look
at Todays Model Interpretation NWP, the 16th, on this ng.
DR

You are just going to have to wait until the forecast reaches outcome,
Dave; both your summer guess and next week too - whoever else you are
listening to. If Darren Betts (who is Darren Betts? Is he a local
telly weather forecaster) really thinks that, with the present output
- and the output for this last week - he's been looking at a different
set of weather charts to the rest of us. It is highly likely that Mon-
Thurs 21-24 July next week will not be what you've learned from Mr.
Betts. But, like I say, wait until next Friday and analyse your
forecast then.

Your last paragraph about dates and improvements doesn't make much
sense, sorry. The improvement for next week has been well flagged up
and is likley to happen. there's been some speculation about 28th July
onwards being decent, but it's 11+ days away and i'd take it with a
lorryload of salt. If anyone can see the weather out to 10th August,
anywhere, let us know, please. I think you've plucked that
"improvement" out of the air to back your case. It's a straw man
improvement. Where have you seen that foecast?

The summer may well be unsettled and cooler overall and you may be
right: so far, the first half has been wetter and a little cooler,
but I maintain that is only guessable. For the MetO, they may be
relying on internal research on La Nina's effect on the UK climate. I
don't think anythink new has been published in the last 12 months, but
if I haven't seen it, point me in the right direction would you? Dr.
Scaife did imply the research was on its way, when I exchanged emails
with him last summer. For your seasonal forecast, much as you'd like
to think it is a great forecast, it's the same as everyone else's on
the Internet - a guess - which has yet to be proved correct.

Paul