On Jul 29, 7:38*am, Dawlish wrote:
The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

Still some non-"end-of-summer" output from the gfs 06z. Not exactly
Azores High settled stuff, but instead, the UK sits on the Eastern
side of Atlantic troughs, drawing up some warm air. Nothing like
enough confidence for a forecast....but some possibilities of August
warmth. The current swings at T240+, however, suggests that pretty
much anything could happen. Met office goes with "there is still a
hint that conditions may become slightly more settled from the
southwest towards the end of the outlook period." That's the ECM00z/
gfs00z output. OK. That's what it is showing and it is slightly
interesting!

Paul