On Jul 29, 7:38 am, Dawlish wrote:
The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

What's perhaps encouraging is as soon as the end of the weekend, the
models (including successive GFS) vary. There seems to be at least the
possibility of some reasonable weather as soon as Tues/Wed next week.
Would like the low pressure to keep away till October though,
generally we seem to have got a raw deal in the calendar year 2008
with no prolonged settled spells - except in February. Of course
October will probably be very dry and very warm....

Looking back on June and July, the main theme has been more
unseasonably cool weather than normal rather than excessive rainfall,
particularly in July prior to the 21st. In some ways so far this has
been a typical recent "even year summer" - between 1997 and 2005,
summers seemed to alternate between relatively good odd summers and
relatively poor even summers.

Nick