On Jul 29, 10:14*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 29, 8:24*pm, wrote:





On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes; the "low from hell", Nick! It wasn't there on the 06z and then
the 12z gfs promises nothing like as nice conditions and gives us
autumn in the second week of August! Based upon the output over the
last 2 days, I would back cooler and showery, rather than settled and
warm, but there are such surprising changes with each run, at the
moment, that someone would have to offer me decent odds to actually
take the plunge and bet! I suppose I'm clutching at the chance that if
the gfs output is inconsistent, there must be a chance of a decent
August, overall! The problem is that the ECM 12z shows the "low from
hell" as well.

Who knows?.......and I do mean that, as no-one, IMO, at 10 days+,
actually does know. That's the really frustrating, but amazingly
interesting, thing!

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It doesn't look good. Yesterday's straws appear to have got fewer,
further apart and more slippery! Very little summery cheer on the 00z,
after tomorrow's probable 80F+in the SE marks the end of this warm
spell. Mixtures of showers and extended periods cyclonic rainfall for
almost everyone, at the weekend and out to the end of the first week
of August at least. There'll be the odd nice day, more of them in the
SE than anywhere else, but clouds and rain just hang around those gfs
and ECM charts. The only hope is the continuing inconsistency at 10
days+. How depressing!

Paul