On Aug 10, 12:39*am, Dawlish wrote:
Summer is not over! (well, there's a 75-80% chance that it is not
over!)

On Tuesday, 19th August, much of the UK will be dominated by high
pressure. The weather will be settled, with plenty of sunshine and
warmer than average daytime temperatures. The majority of the UK will
be dry and most of us will have breathed a big sigh of relief to get
rid of the low pressures, cood temperatures and wet conditions that
will have plagued us in the preceeding week.

The coming week looks dreadful, but I think the weather will improve
towards the 19th. Right in the middle of my holiday in Cornwall too!
No guearantees that it will stay to the bank holiday, but this
increases the chances that it will.

Paul

It just looks so wet this week - especially tomorrow and especially in
the West. No weather warnings out yet, but expect some. It looks like
Autumn in the SW and the tourists are not going to go home like
lobsters this week! The model output for this has been incredibly
consistent, since my forecast of low pressure dominance for the 12th.
By tomorrow, we will have had 12 days of consistency about tomorrow's
(and this week's) autumnal weather. The models have done very well.

Quite a model wobble on this forecast yesterday, but the higher
pressure is back today on the gfs. My confidence in it has presenttly
dropped below 75%, but I still feel that higher pressure on the 19th
is more likely than the low pressure in this Met Office forecast from
yesterday:

"After a cool and showery day on Friday, the weather should generally
improve over the coming weekend, with more in the way of warm sunshine
and less showers around. However, more wet and windy weather is
expected to arrive from the Atlantic to affect southwest England,
Wales and Northern Ireland later on Sunday. From Monday to Wednesday,
the weather looks distinctly unsettled and often quite windy across
the United Kingdom, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers
heavy in places and merging to give more prolonged spells of rain at
times, while also turning disappointingly cool again. Towards the end
of next week and into the following weekend, there is a hint of a
change to more settled, warmer weather, especially in the south and
east.

Updated: 1238 on Sun 10 Aug 2008"

It's an interesting situation. Here's a case where the model output
actually is variable, at less than 10 days. I'm hoping the gfs has a
better handle on the situation next week, but after the output over
the last 24 hours, I'm not as confident as I was early yesterday
morning.

Paul