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Old August 11th 08, 05:55 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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Default Forecast of High pressure on Tuesday 19th August

On Aug 11, 9:39*am, Steve Willington
wrote:
On Aug 11, 9:28*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 11, 9:07*am, Robin Nicholson


wrote:
On Mon, 11 Aug 2008 00:50:20 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:


*Towards the end


of next week and into the following weekend, there is a hint of a
change to more settled, warmer weather, especially in the south and
east.


Updated: 1238 on Sun 10 Aug 2008"


Hi Paul


All I would say is that I have seen this 'hint of high pressure' quite
a few times so far in the last month!


My feeling is that we are 'bound' to get some very pleasant weather in
September and October. I seem to recall that we have had a run of
quite quiet autumns recently.


R


Yes, I agree, Robin. The previous MetO 6-15 days forecast had exactly
that for next week (not the week after, as in yeasterday's update)!
I've not felt that those hints have generated enough confidence for a
forecast - hence no forecast of settled weather from me, until this
one.


Paul


It must be born in mind that the MetO forecasts will be generated
using a lot of additional data so it will not be surprising that it
may be at odds with GFS - GFS Operational runs and ensembles will be a
part of the mix (often small) that will vary given the situation.

Steve.www.rockbeareweather.co.uk- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


This forecast is still in the balance for next tuesday - but there's
something that we haven't seen on any chart, even at T264+, for weeks.
A North African plume!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2642.png

I'll believe it if it stays for another day's runs!

Paul