On 19 Aug, 17:57, wrote:
On Aug 19, 3:45 pm, Alan White wrote:

On Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:58:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
...
And it wasn't a bad forecast, it's just the potential high pressure
this week has been spoilt by an extra small low crossing the area from
late Wednesday to early Friday. If that hadn't formed it'd be spot on.

So every time a forecast is wrong it's not the fault of the forecaster,
it's the fault of the weather for not conforming to the forecast.

Hmmm...some dodgy logic there.

What I was trying to say is that Dawlish was correct about the end to
the very cyclonic spell of the past two weeks around now, and that we
are moving into a spell where high pressure has more of an influence.
As so often happens though, a minor low has formed which has kept the
high further out in the Atlantic than expected. I think you've got to
give credit where credit's due.

Nick

There was low with a central pressure of 994mb just off Yorkshire at
noon - hardly a minor low considering it's August. Totally different
to the 240hrs GFS prediction which Dawlish used - claiming in some
inexplicable way that it was his forecast.

People like Darren add value to the model prediction by providing a
very useful summary. Dawlish just finds one (his favourite is GFS) and
claims it as his own forecast. If I was to claim a model prediction as
my own forecast I'd choose something like the ENS Ensemble Model.

Graham
Penzance