Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Monday.
Issued 0459z, 21st August 2008
A NW/SE split still looks likely for the first half of next week, with the
south and east seeing drier and warmer conditions than the north and west.
Towards the end of the week it looks like turning warmer and more settled
for most areas as pressure builds.
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A trough covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with SW'lies elsewhere.
Tomorrow the trough moves eastwards, leading to NW'lies for most. Saturday
sees a ridge over the UK and a mixture of NW'lies for England and Wales and
SSW'lies elsewhere. Sunday sees strong SSW'lies for all as a trough
approaches from the west.
T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong, zonal jet across the North Atlantic and
Scotland. At the 500hPa level there's a westerly flow aloft, as is the case
with MetO. ECM has upper SW'lies and GEM also has SW'lies.
At the surface GFS shows SW'lies for all with low pressure far to the NNW.
MetO shows a deep low near the Faroes and strong SW'lies, while ECM has a
trough to the west and lighter southerlies. GEM shows a low south of Iceland
and strong SSW'lies.
Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings SW'lies for all with low pressure over Iceland.
SW'lies persist on day 7.
WSW'lies cover the UK on day 6 with GFS as pressure rises to the south. Day
7 sees NW'lies with a ridge to the west.
Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM SW'lies continue to affect the UK. Day 9 sees southerlies
ahead of a trough and day 10 has further southerlies.
Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK with GFS on day 8, due to a high to the
west. There's little change on day 9, but by day 10 the high moves over the
UK, with light winds for all.
Ensemble analysis
(
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show drier and warmer weather for next week.