"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but
dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will
--

At the moment my rose tinted glasses aren't quite strong enough to be that
hopeful. 12z GFS mean 850 hPa's are down 3deg on yesterday and most of the
ensemble members (Boxing Day) are tightly clustered around or just above the
mean, which is in fact dragged lower by approx 4 much more scattered lower
runs. Nevertheless it shouldn't be that horrible mild damp Christmas stuff
and it's still way to far away to be sure, as your probabilities indicate.
Dave