"Will Hand" wrote in message
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"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
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Will Hand wrote:
"James Brown" wrote in message
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Is it a warm outlier I wonder - the encroaching warmer air from the SW
seems to at least temporarily make it through the block....

Not so cheers!
--
James Brown

Yep a marked warm outlier. Ignore it.

Will

I do admire your confidence Will :-)


Thanks keith, but it's based on a lot of experience and knowledge. In
these situations, once a block becomes established with an anchoring low
to the south of the anticyclone, what that does is two things, it helps to
deflect the westerly jet and feeds negative potential vorticity from the
south into the high - both help to maintain the block. The low to the
south, by itself will not normally break down a block. It sometimes does
happen but rarely. Looking more closely it seems that that run wanted to
collapse our present high quickly before the northern retrogressed high
built, this is at odds with the ensemble mean. What it might be signalling
though is the possibility of some organised rain/snow in the SW as the low
pressure weakness brushes northwestwards.

Will
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Well I've entered the winter spirit - go to www.laindonweather.co.uk
If that doesn't b*gger it up nothing will ;-) (No polar bears though)

Dave
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