Hi just got back, and apart from a drier story for Monday nothing seems to
have changed much.
Models are still struggling with the block big-time I notice with UKMO
dramatically collapsing it. I rate a collapse this week on available
evidence at 30%, and prefer to go with other models and ensembles on
maintaining high pressure over UK giving very cold frosty nights and dry
weather. The cold front tomorrow could give a bit of sleet and snow inland
in eastern areas. The interesting thing is that this block could still go
either way depending on how troughs disrupt in the western Atlantic, get a
strong upper wind SW'ly push to the east of Greenland and it will topple
away smartly into the Balkans. This does seem the more likely scenario I
have to say given the appearance of some very warm 564DAM air in the
forecast jet at T+132 in GFS. But we shall see, that is the beauty and
dynamical interest. Introduce a strong southerly jet west of Greenland and
we are in for a long bitter spell, but I rate this as low probability ATM.

Will
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