Keith (Southend) wrote:
Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1
decent, old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been
gradually building up to something since the early start we had in
October. - Tom.

It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

Well I thought I hinted at a possible block going into Feb. a few days ago.
Also PE a couple of weeks back. But where will it be? Conditions are coming
right, the jet has sunk south and it cannot get any further south without
breaking up due to decreased thermal contrast through diabatic warming of
the cold air, and once that happens the longwave pattern re-aligns opening
the door for a change of type. Easterlies are dynamically and scientifically
sensible Keith, ECMWF has been hinting at a change of type too, also JMA
both excellent models as we know. GFS won't get the detail we know that, but
I would say that there is a 60% chance now of another block developing by
the end of the month.

Will
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