On Thu, 9 Sep 2004 08:38:40 +0100, "Brendan DJ Murphy"
wrote:

Max sustained winds increased from 145MPH to 160MPH in 3 hours!

Extract from Public advisory #27 (3am GMT 9/9/04)
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH.

Extract from Public advisory #27A (6am GMT 9/9/04)
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

That's category five, and it gets worse. Extract from today's 11 am
GMT NHC Discussion on Ivan:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

"The upper-level outflow pattern is impressive and well-established
....And if anything...will only get better for the next 72-96 hours.
Therefore...the future intensity will likely be modulated by inner-
core convective changes and land interaction since th water ahead of
Ivan is only forecast to get warmer...as warm as 30c south of Cuba
and over the Florida Straits."

So, Ivan is currently forecast to:

- Cross Jamaica as a strong cat. 4 bordering on cat. 5.
- Cross Cuba as a Cat 4.
- reach Florida as a Cat 3 or Cat 4.

This is not good.

--
Dave