Alastair wrote:

On Apr 21, 9:15 pm, Pete L wrote:
On 21 Apr, 21:18, Alastair wrote:



On Apr 21, 6:38 pm, Pete L wrote:

On 21 Apr, 14:48, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:17, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:09, Paul Hyett
wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works
to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the
UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is
we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking
particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer
brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures
again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for
a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a
century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder'
to email me)

Yes, I just found this on the BBC website:

Scientists warn sun has
dimmedhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8009492.stm

An interesting peice of the puzzle.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now if this doesn't bring a long hot dry summer, I'll "Eat my
hat" ;-)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8010322.stm

Keith (Southend)

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)?
Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise
by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North
Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to
have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like
me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

Presumably you are referring to
this:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/richard...blog_post/nich...

What you are missing is that a global temperature rise of 6C means a
12 C in the UK and 24C at the poles, but quite warm enough for
alligators.

Cheers, Alastair.

I've never seen these figures in any publication - where did they come
from? It doesn't seem very realistic to me.My -40 North Pole winter
temp becomes -16, which is cold enough. Summer temp of zero now
becoming +24 and this over open sea water? Sorry, I just think this
defies all common sense.

Before I go searching for the source of my figures, which you will
ridicule anyway, what is the source of your figures?

I am not prepared to enter into a serious debate with you unless you
can back up your facts.


Which facts are you querying? Pete's use of -40C in winter and 0C as the
average temps for the NP seems reasonable to me. The only other figures
he's used are your own.

What I would suggest as the mistake Pete has made is to apply your 24C
Polar correction equally across Winter and Summer. Such a rise - or even a
much smaller one - would see most of the Arctic Ocean ice-free throughout
the year. This lack of ice in Winter could mean a rise of about 40C to
near 0c but Summer temperatures, to achieve the 24C annual rise could rise
to 8C.

The only projection I have for distribution of temperatures is over thirty
years old - I need to get a bit more up-to-date - and, for a 3C global
rise, has local rises of around 2C from the equator to near 40N and 10C
North of 80N. The UK latitude would be 3.5-4C.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy