Pete L wrote:

Alastair,
I'm not out to rubbish your figures - all I'm doing is
questioning the alligator idea. Firstly, temperatures at the North
Pole certainly average around -40 degs in late Winter. Just look at
the observations - even now in late April I see a few -23 degs obs.
The round about zero for mid Summer is also correct. I understand the
concept of global warming, I just wonder if the maths in the computer
models is correct. Just because the computer 'says so' doesn't mean to
say it is gospel. Obviously climate models are very different from
that which is used to predict the next few days weather but the chaos
idea doesn't go away. One tiny error in the climate model could easily
produce a totally different prectiction from reality. Your 24 deg rise
leading to summer sea temps at the North Pole of 24 degs just seems
too unlikely to be true. Heaven knows what the sea temp at my local
beach at Margate will be then!!!

The idea that the open Arctic Ocean would be ice-free through the winter
once total melting occurs in summer pre-dates computer models. I mentioned
elsewhere how I think the temperature would react in these circumstances. In
any case, it's not "the" climate model - there have been many different ones
over the past thirty-odd years.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.