On 25 Apr, 14:52, Alastair wrote:
On Apr 24, 7:10*pm, Alan LeHun wrote:

In article 62bd8fe0-a139-4c11-a3fd-7203b2162236
@c9g2000yqm.googlegroups.com, says...

Interesting, and it roughly bears out my crude figures of equatorial
warming equal to the global value, double the equatorial warming in
the UK, and double again in the Arctic.

This has broken my logic chip. The average global increase is roughly
equal to the lowest local increase?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan,

The area from 30S to 30N (what I am calling the tropics) covers
roughly 50 % of the area of the globe, so it does warm by a similar
amount to the average. *The polar region say 60N to 90N is much
smaller so even though the temperature change there is much greater it
does not affect the average by much. See Graham's figures.

Pete,

You still have not given me a URL for the data you are using. *I am
afraid I am too lazy to go looking for that data myself :-(

But you mention the North Pole, (which as far as I know does not have
a permanent weather station,) and that is not the only Arctic
location. *Alligators do not live in the open ocean, they live in
rivers. For instance those that will form in the north of Ellesmere
Island where fossils of Alligators have been found.

The Canadian Encyclopaedia says :

Ellesmere Island

Some 55 million years ago, during the early Eocene Epoch, ELLESMERE
Island in Canada's eastern High Arctic was warm and ice-free. It was
also home to lush lowland forests and swamps inhabited by alligators,
giant tortoises, snakes, lizards, and a host of mammals that included
primates, tapirs, hippo-like Coryphodon, and large, rhino-like
brontotheres.

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.c...CE&Params=A1AR....

That article concludes:

The Eocene fossil animals and plants preserved in rocks on Ellesmere
Island comprise a striking example of a high-latitude "greenhouse"
world during the warmest interval in all of Cenozoic time. New
paleoclimate studies indicate that Mean Annual Temperatures (MAT) on
Ellesmere Island during the early Eocene probably ranged from about 10
to 12 ºC, a far cry from today's MAT of about -20 º C. As our concerns
about today's GLOBAL WARMING are heightened, the fossils of Ellesmere
Island will play an ever-important role in our understanding and
ability to predict the future impacts of global warming on Earth's
life and environments.

In other words, it is not ridiculous to imagine that if CO2 levels
reach those of the Eocene then we could find Alligators returning to
the Arctic. It doesn't really matter whether the temperature at the
North Pole can drop as low as 40 C or not. *If the sea ice melts then
we will be in an entirely new ball game.

Cheers, Alastair.

Try http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak...NNWWarctis.gif
for the latest Arctic observations.