F'cst hot dry summer?
The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the
Ash
to bread bud.
So expect only a splash.


.... from "Red Sky at Night, Shepherd's Delight" [Paul Marriott], where
he analyses many such 'country' sayings, there are several which link
the leafing behaviour of the Oak and Ash.

"When the oak comes out before the ash, there will be fine weather in
harvest; but when the ash comes out before the oak, the harvest will
be wet": this was tested over a period of 122 years for data in
Norfolk. The results come out between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 correct
depending on the sequence, i.e., no useful signal.

Various couplets are given which mention the word 'choke' (meaning
drought: country roads dry/dusty), e.g. ...
" When the ash is out before the oak, then we may expect a choke; when
the oak is out before the ash, then we may expect a splash "; note
this is the *reverse* of the implied indication above - oak before ash
implying rain, ash before oak implying dry: this too produced
lacklustre returns, with a rating of 'Poor' (17-32% correct).

One maxim which also contradicts the oft-quoted implication is:-

" If the oak is out before the ash, twill be a summer of wet and
splash; but if the ash is before the oak, twill be a summer of fire
and smoke "; The first part (oak before ash = wet summer) had a
success rate of 'Fair' (33-48%); the second part (ash before oak =
dry) rated 'Poor' (as above).

But we don't need even these analyses to emphasise how wary of such we
should be.

From the Woodland Trust site at:- http://www.woodland-trust.org.uk/

From 2007 data for Ash and Oak (pedunculate) we have:...

Average leaf-budburst Ash = 21st April
Average leaf-budburst Oak = 8th April
That is, 'Oak before Ash' .... implies a 'splash'?

May, June & July 2007 were three very wet months - the wettest such
sequence in the England & Wales Precipitation series. So, was that a
'splash' or a 'soak' :-)

I don't see any reason why well-rooted, healthy trees should be able
to *forecast* a season ahead. They respond to last year's events, and
immediate weather 'input', such as sunshine, air & soil temperature &
soil moisture.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023