This week's set-up is a classic ...
1.twin vortices near Scandinavia and the Canadian
Maritimes ...
2. a straight WNW-ly jet across the Atlantic
3. a frontal boundary lying across the right
entrance of the jet (near Newfoundland)
4. big air-mass contrasts over eastern Canada
with the frontal boundary sharpening

In the classic scenario what happens next is a
warm front wave runs into the jet's right entrance,
races across the Atlantic under the jet, then
deepens explosively as it reaches the left exit.

The Braxeter charts have most of the deepening
after the wave has crossed the UK on Thursday
night and Friday, which is good for us but nasty
for Denmark, north Germany and Nederland ...
fortunately the astronomical tides are close to their
lowest amplitude later this week, mitigating the
likely surge into the NW German estuaries.

Philip Eden