On 26 June, 21:48, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jun 26, 4:52*pm, David Buttery wrote:





On Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:00:50 +0100, John. Athome wrote:
Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales
between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%
snip
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...lth/index.html

I may very well be missing something here, but that surprises me a little
bit. For example, London's threshold day max is 32°C, which is not a very
easy value to reach. Clicking on London on the actual MetO map gives 28°C
for Monday and 27°C for Tuesday, and GFS seems broadly to agree.

I don't really see where the stated "60% risk" of 32°C in London comes
from, assuming the warning isn't simply about high night-time minima (in
which case one would assume this would be stated).

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

* * * I agree with all that. *The conditions for extreme heat do not
seem to be there. *One could mischievously point out that if the
forecast max is 28°C but there's a 60% chance of it reacing 32°C then
the probability distribution is very skew, the standard deviation
large and the forecast worthless. *I think it could be either a case
of not-very-joined-up thinking or jumpiness due to over-caution. *It
would have been more effective just to state that it is going to get
very warm and also pretty humid with a few figures to illustrate.
Having formalised the process and reduced it to box-ticking the Met
Office have rather hamstrung themselves. *An excess of management, one
of those diseases of civilisation.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Box-ticking? It must at the very least be an Excel spreadsheet or
Access file with a few student-written macros? Maybe the software
coughs out the "weather-speak" as well. It sure wouldn't pass the
Turing test.

Martin