On Jun 26, 9:48*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jun 26, 4:52*pm, David Buttery wrote:





On Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:00:50 +0100, John. Athome wrote:
Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales
between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%
snip
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...lth/index.html

I may very well be missing something here, but that surprises me a little
bit. For example, London's threshold day max is 32°C, which is not a very
easy value to reach. Clicking on London on the actual MetO map gives 28°C
for Monday and 27°C for Tuesday, and GFS seems broadly to agree.

I don't really see where the stated "60% risk" of 32°C in London comes
from, assuming the warning isn't simply about high night-time minima (in
which case one would assume this would be stated).

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

* * * I agree with all that. *The conditions for extreme heat do not
seem to be there. *One could mischievously point out that if the
forecast max is 28°C but there's a 60% chance of it reacing 32°C then
the probability distribution is very skew, the standard deviation
large and the forecast worthless. *I think it could be either a case
of not-very-joined-up thinking or jumpiness due to over-caution. *It
would have been more effective just to state that it is going to get
very warm and also pretty humid with a few figures to illustrate.
Having formalised the process and reduced it to box-ticking the Met
Office have rather hamstrung themselves. *An excess of management, one
of those diseases of civilisation.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is all sorts of useless debate to be had about the word
"extreme", but as for "conditions" for extreme heat in England, I
don't agree with you; it would be harder to find conditions more
perfect for June heat in the UK. A quasi-stationary low to our SW and
an anticyclone to our NE draws up a plume of extremely warm air with a
track back to N. Africa. The actual weather has to happen, of course,
but the forecast conditions for extreme June heat are certainly there.
Next week's maximum temperatures could be very interesting.

Max daily records from Torro:

C F
June
29 35.6* 96* Camden Square (London)1957 35.0 95 Northolt
(London) 1957

30 33.8 92.8 Barbourne (Worcester) 1995; 33.3/92 East Malling,
Swanley (both Kent) 1957

Jul
1 34.8 94.6 Jersey- St Louis 1952; 33.9/93.0 Dartford and
Gillingham (both Kent), Regents Park and Northolt (both London) 1961

2 35.7 96.3 Cheltenham (Glos) 1976; 35.6/96.1 Trowbridge (Wilts)
1976

3 35.9 96.6 Cheltenham (Glos)1976

4 34.1 93.4 North Heath (W Sussex) and Cheltenham (Glos)1976

Within and and either side of these dates is that incredible and truly
extreme, spell of early summer weather in late June/early July which
set 11 date records in 15 days between 23rd June and 7th July. It'll
be hot next week, but probably not that hot.

Has anyone got a link to archive charts to compare the synoptic
situation in 1976 to the forecast situation for next week? I can only
seem to get the gfs archive to go back to 1999.