On Jul 6, 2:15*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 6 July, 14:03, "peter clarke" wrote:

The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

I was unpopular yesterday when talking to someone around the outside
swimming pool at our local club ,when I hinted that we *may* have had
the best weeks weather of the summer. Apart from the odd day, I don't
see any prolonged settled weather now for July, but maybe August will
save the day ;-)

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Very interesting! I'm not sure it is clear at all what effect the
weather in early July will have on the rest of the summer (or how the
weather at any other time will affect the summer weather for that
matter). I think the best we can say is that the next 10 days probably
look pretty poor, but even then, my own criterion of 5 consecutive
runs of the gfs and agreement from the ECM has not been achieved since
June 16th (and that led to an incorrect 10-day forecast from me too!).
That reflects the high 10-day model inconsistency over the last 3
weeks and makes me wonder how anyone could come to the conclusion that
you have about anything past the middle of July. I'm not saying you
won't be correct, Keith, I'm just questioning how you could possibly
know? I understand why you may have given this a stab, in that a
pattern is more likely to propogate, than to change, but to
extrapolate the present, changeable, model output past 7/8 days,
especially after a warm June and a hot start to July, would not have a
high chance of success, IMO.

On June 30th,the MetO reinforced their original view that the summer
will be warmer than average with average rainfall when the weather
models looked much warmer and drier than the do presently. They
probably give the best guess as to what may happen, but their longer
term sumer forecasting record isn't anything to write home about:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...09/summer.html

There are a plethora of (mainly) warmer and (some) colder than average
temp forecasts around the blogosphere but I wouldn't trust any of them
as far as I could throw them as almost none of them are backed by any
outcome accuracy stats over time. They are almost all guesses dressed
up with (often good) meteorology and a knowledge that ENSO exists.
ENSO can certainly influence the Indian monsoon and may have an
influence in the UK via teleconnections through the Med and on to us
(in email conversation, Adam Scaith certainly thought so and went
public about that in The Times during the poorer summer of 2007. He
indicated that recent, (and still unpublished, as far as I know),
research will probably indicate a La Nina/wetter and cooler N.
European summer link. I know at least one study that has found a weak
ENSO/N. Europe link - but not of any that link ENSO conditions
specifically to the UK (please put a link if you know of any - I'm
sure there will be soon!). Philip has done work in the area of
hindcast seasonal forecasting, which has been very interesting to read
and does give pointers for some seasons, but I'm not sure that covered
forecasting July and August from June's weather. I do feel more links
will come to light over the next few years and I look forward to the
research.

As for me, in this Global Warming trend, I'd expect any UK summer to
have a 75% chance of being warmer than the long-term average and
that's what I'd forecast for this one (and every other one since 1991
- I'm doing pretty well I think!) This one is presently more likely to
be warmer, than not, as 1/3 of the sumer has gone and has been warmer
than average. I have no idea whether the UK summer will be wetter than
average, past guessing and considering a UK/La Nina link.

As for the summer monsoon - that appears to have more provenance. I'd
like to see some research into how often and after what previous
conditions the summer monsoon occurs.manifests itself.