Bernd Felsche wrote:

jim "sjedgingN0Sp"@m@mwt,net wrote:
Last Post wrote:

The high price of oil in the past few years was
created by speculators that gambled that there would
be a shortage, and encouraged by the Saudi OPEC
honcho, boosted the futures market.

The high price of oil was caused by oil consumers who are suffering
from a social disorder. Consumers have become completely unable to
regulate their consumption. That is one of the symptoms of a
bingeing disorder.

Wrong. The high price of oil is caused by SPECULATIVE TRADING.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/business/08cftc.html?_r=1&hp

The "real" oil price is under US$40/bbl ... If it were sustained any
higher, then alternative sources of oil become financially viable.


Oil from shale is viable at less than US$60/bbl ... if the price is
sustained and at that level due to real world (non-speculative)
market forces.

"Oil" from coal is viable at (probably much) less than US$100/bbl.


The value of oil is what consumers are willing to pay for it. That means
in today's world the real value of oil would be probably around
$400-$500 a barrel ofr even more. At somewhere around that price point
consumers would start to withdraw from the market and supply and demand
would become stable and thus the price would stabilize and remain
steady. So why hasn't the price risen to that level which is the amount
consumers would be willing to pay? The answer is the world would become
a very ugly place if millions of oil addicts were put in that position.
Oil addicts would be selling their children to pay for their oil fix....
well we don't even want to think about what would happen do we?
The price of oil is clearly being manipulated by powerful world
political forces. There is no doubt about it. But the price is not being
held high - it is being held artificially low. Whether you know it or
not the political forces that be know it. They understand the terrible
consequences that would ensue if pure market forces were allowed to take
over.


You have created a story that the "real oil price" is somewhere
between $40-$60 per barrel not by any rational economic analysis, but by
a social analysis. You conclude that at %50/barrel you could feed your
addiction to oil without suffering any functional impairment. I think
that is probably correct. I think you are absolutely right that if we
could have an infinite supply of oil at $50/brl, then oil addiction
wouldn't be a big problem. But unfortunately your story is a fairy tale.
You can't just say that oil will be $50 abarrel and it will last for
ever and everybody will live happily ever after.
It just simply is not sustainable view to the future. And at some point
your fairy tale will have a very bad ending and people won't live
happily ever after.

-jim


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