"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:

Back to meteorology. ISTM that the 564 DAM air to our SW is providing
"fuel" that is helping to maintain a more southerly location of the jet.
I
said in another thread that I thought that the 564 DAM line was just a
bit
further north than it should be. I wonder if this is a sign of things to
come in the next few years - wetter and more cloudy summers, contrary to
what GW "experts" predict for the UK.
Or is it all down to synoptics and a one-off? Having said that July can
often be a cyclonic month so perhaps we shouldn't worry too much, but the
persistent closeness of that warm and moist 564 DAM air is bothering me
-

I'm more inclined to believe that the appearance during June of a cold
pool
in the SST anomalies in mid-Atlantic has had more to do with pushing the
jet
further south. One thing in our favour is that the pool doesn't have an
E-W
long axis typical of anomaly patterns that have been responsible for
prolonged cold westerlies.

As to GW being responsible for this pattern, I don't see why. The only
reason GW could cause something like this is if the NAD weakened
significantly or shut down altogether. The SST anomalies would then evolve
into a pattern similar to what I described above, only much more severe,
with a strong cold pool extending from Newfoundland to the UK. This would
lead to strong, cold, cyclonic westerlies over the UK but with low
rainfall
because of the low SST.


Why is the 564DAM line persistently a bit further north than it should be
then?
Or is it? GW could easily be responsible, if the Tropics are warming then
warmer, moister air is going to end up further north, is it not?

Will
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