Will Hand wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
Back to meteorology. ISTM that the 564 DAM air to our SW is providing
"fuel" that is helping to maintain a more southerly location of the
jet. I
said in another thread that I thought that the 564 DAM line was just
a bit
further north than it should be. I wonder if this is a sign of things to
come in the next few years - wetter and more cloudy summers, contrary to
what GW "experts" predict for the UK.
Or is it all down to synoptics and a one-off? Having said that July can
often be a cyclonic month so perhaps we shouldn't worry too much, but
the
persistent closeness of that warm and moist 564 DAM air is
bothering me
-
I'm more inclined to believe that the appearance during June of a cold
pool
in the SST anomalies in mid-Atlantic has had more to do with pushing
the jet
further south. One thing in our favour is that the pool doesn't have
an E-W
long axis typical of anomaly patterns that have been responsible for
prolonged cold westerlies.
As to GW being responsible for this pattern, I don't see why. The only
reason GW could cause something like this is if the NAD weakened
significantly or shut down altogether. The SST anomalies would then
evolve
into a pattern similar to what I described above, only much more severe,
with a strong cold pool extending from Newfoundland to the UK. This would
lead to strong, cold, cyclonic westerlies over the UK but with low
rainfall
because of the low SST.
Why is the 564DAM line persistently a bit further north than it should
be then?
Or is it? GW could easily be responsible, if the Tropics are warming
then warmer, moister air is going to end up further north, is it not?
Will
Admittedly, I can't say where the 564 DAM line normally is this time of
year, but looking at the charts I don't see it being particularly far north.
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1a.gif
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack3.gif
and in the middle of the Atlantic it seem quite far south. Certainly
it's close to us on the near Continent, but am I missing something here?
Ta
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net