View Single Post
  #3   Report Post  
Old July 30th 09, 02:28 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
Posts: 10,601
Default Warmth on the way next week?

On Jul 30, 8:36*am, "Ridge Runner" wrote:
Thankfully i'm heading back down to southern Germany to work for another
month next week so hopefully i will find something better than what were
getting now here, my last stint down the which finished a couple of weeks
ago was a tad wet since i left there has been very little in the way of
rain.

Good luck on your plume!

Robbie

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


The MetO don't believe any real warmth is on the way next week.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Aug 2009 to Thursday 13 Aug 2009:
All parts are likely to start unsettled. Rain in northern parts on
Tuesday should clear to sunshine and showers, but more rain is
expected to spread into the northwest on Wednesday. The southeast may
start dry, but rain across Central parts is likely to last into
Wednesday. Temperatures should be near normal, with strong winds in
some coastal parts. All parts are likely to remain unsettled through
the second half of next week and into the following week, with showers
or longer spells of rain, but also some dry and brighter spells. The
most persistent rain is likely to occur in the north and west, where
it will also be windy at times. The south and east should be drier and
brighter. Temperatures in all parts should be near normal.

Updated: 1239 on Thu 30 Jul 2009

i.e. no real end to the unsettled weather and no heat at all.

These are the London ensembles for the 06z today.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Yesterday, the warm operational run was a massive outlier. Not today.
With the ensembles like this, at only 6-8 days, you might think there
would be a mention of a possible short period of very warm weather
next week? Like I said earlier, nothing is nailed on with this plume,
it could topple and miss us. After yesterday and the awfully critical
headlines in the papers this morning, maybe the MetO forecasters are
under pain of not having any more tea breaks at all if they even
mention the possibility of warm weather in even a medium-term
forecast. Maybe the powers that be have even threatened the 6-15 day
forecaster with removal of biccie priviledges if he mentions the
slightest bit of warmth!!