Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:09 pm, sutartsorric wrote:
On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Jul 31, 7:53 am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.
This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.
R
You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.
Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.
I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm more than a little perplexed at the 6-15 day forecast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Aug 2009 to Friday 14 Aug 2009:
Northern and western areas seeing rain at first, which may be heavy
but turning showery by Thursday. A risk of thundery rain in the south-
east too, but more central parts may start dry and fairly bright.
Rather unsettled through the weekend with the most frequent rain or
showers in the north and west with an indication of some drier and
brighter conditions across the south of the UK for a time.
Temperatures near normal generally but locally warm in sunnier spells
in central and southern areas. Through the following week the north
looks set to remain unsettled with rain and strong winds at times,
whilst the south will see occasional rain but some drier spells with
sunshine at times too.

Updated: 1224 on Fri 31 Jul 2009

Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

I have no doubt you'll have a heatwave here in the next two weeks, we
always do when I'm out the Country ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net