On Aug 5, 10:47*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30*am, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!

Though it has to be said that if this month ends up warm-ish and dry-
ish, the original forecast of an overall better than average summer
will be realised. It is just unfortunate (if you weren't lucky enough
to be out of this part of Europe for much of July!) that all the bad
weather will have been concentrated into one month from July 4th or
so, and how we got cool daytime temperatures masked by higher night-
time temperatures.

Nick