Next month it looks as though I won't be posting on Sunday mornings - more
details available he

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/wea...TOPIC_ID=31085

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0551z,
27/09/04.

The models are very mixed today, with everything from highs to lows in the
charts. The best that can be said is that areas further south and east will
probably escape the worst of any unsettled weather, although even that's in
doubt (JMA for T+120 shows a low over the Channel, for example). More than
ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the NW, with SW'lies across the UK. SW'lies persist at
T+144, although a ridge means the winds are lighter over England and Wales.
A deep secondary low covers the Western Isles at T+168, bringing strong to
gale force SW'lies across the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Highs lie to the NE and SW of the UK, with southerlies for much of the
British Isles. A trough covers Ireland, bringing SSW'les to Northern
Ireland. The trough moves eastwards at T+144, allowing WSW'lies and SW'lies
to sweep across the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Scandinavia is covered by high pressure, as is Biscay. The UK lies between
the two, with southerlies for Scotland, SW'lies for Wales and Northern
Ireland and NW'lies for much of England. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C
over NE Scotland to +6C over Northern Ireland. SW'lies affect the UK at
T+144 as the Biscay and Scandinavian Highs merge. The winds become NW'lies
at T+168 as a trough moves eastwards over the UK, followed by northerlies on
day 8 as the trough deepens to become a low over the Netherlands. The low
fills in situ on day 9 while a ridge moves over Scotland and Ireland; this
leads to NE'lies and northerlies for England and Wales. High pressure builds
strongly over Scandinavia on day 10, with easterlies and ENE'lies over the
UK.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The UK lies under SW'lies, due to a low west of Iceland and high pressure
extending southwards from Scandinavia and westwards from France to Biscay.
850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over Northern Ireland to +7C over
Cornwall. The UK still lies under SW'lies at T+144, although they're
somewhat lighter as pressure rises.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a small low over the English Channel and variable
winds for much of the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from +3C over SW England
to +5C across Scotland. Winds remain light at T+144 due to a col over the
UK, but by T+168 they become westerlies and NW'lies as high pressure builds
to the SW. Day 8 sees SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with high
pressure bringing light winds elsewhere.