On Aug 16, 1:59*pm, "JCW" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

You are right about flagging this up Joe and I'm thinking along the
same lines after the last few runs. Things could get stormy!

Paul, signals still there for something down the pipeline:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
(Aug 26th 00z : 950mb low half-way between New Foundland and Ireland)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png
Aug 26th 18z: 960mb low south of Iceland and west of Ireland. At 06z the GFS
doesn't have anything so potent as the ECM with a 975mb depression only
deepening as it approaches the W/NW of Ireland)

These are changes in location & strength of the depressions, as one would be
expect at that range, but the fact the runs continue to signal some very
active systems in and around that timeframe keeps the interest.

Alastair, I don't envy your better-half flying anywhere in conditions like
this but IF the storm comes about, AND the track holds true further to the
W and N, then Southampton looks relatively(!) okay!

I know it's way too far off at T+240 or T+252 but.... * ;-)

Joe

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There's nothing wrong with keeping an eye out at T240. Consistency at
that distance between runs from one model can be an excellent aid to
forecasting. The depression is now shown to veer NE, past the North of
Scotland, so the consistency isn't there. ECM shows the same dartboard
low in a similar place though.

I feel that the overall suggestion from this is for a much more
unsettled regime to develop in the Atlantic into the last week of
August, but I wouldn't bet on it really affecting the UK yet. Both
Major models are still showing a NW/SE split in what are, basically,
zonal conditions and they show some decent weather for England,
especially for the SE of England, much of the time.