On 17 Aug, 13:29, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote :
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" wrote:

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

: *LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
: *consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
: *realise it's an enormous minefield.
:
: *But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
: *beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!
:
But of course ...
Perhaps we've all been waiting too long ... I note that Ana's
upgrading to TS status was the latest since 1992 (that was
Andrew!), although Bill's hurricane status is the latest only
for three years. And this after the latest start to the hurricane
season on the Pacific side of Central/North America since
1969.

Dates of first Atlantic/Caribbean TS:
2009 *15 Aug
2008 *31 May
2007 *1 Jun
2006 *11 Jun
2005 *8 Jun
2004 *1 Aug
2003 *29 Jun
2002 *15 Jul
2001 *4 Jul
2000 *4 Aug
...
1992 *17 Aug
1977 *29 Aug
1967 *30 Aug ... latest since 1950

And if you look at the records of "first hurricane" prior to 1950, you
can see the marked probable influence of the satellite era with a
number of pseudo-late seasons before the 1950s with the obvious lack
of observational data.

Going back to your original comment - all the models are currently
pointing to Bill recurving and the further south landfall somewhere
close to Nova Scotia. Looks like the steering high is a large enough
feature to be quite well forecast giving good guidance on the track of
Bill - not like one of these meandering hurricanes that wobble through
the Caribbean without a strong large-scale guiding influence.

Richard